Greenpeace have just published a new report in which they look at three different scenarios for South Africa’s future, depending on whether we choose to continue investing in low-cost carbon emitting energy production, or whether we invest ambitiously in green sources of energy.
Contrary to what many people might expect, investing in green energy production is not only better in terms of cutting carbon emissions, it also creates more jobs for South Africans.
Under the Growth Without Constraints model that was designed by the government to reflect our energy future assuming that neither climate change nor oil shortages were constraints on growth, the predicted growth in jobs is 71,000. Under the ‘Energy Revolution’ scenario proposed by Greenpeace, 78,000 new jobs are created.
While South Africa pumps out carbon dioxide emissions from coal (we are the 14th highest emitter of carbon dioxide in the world), we are sitting atop a treasure trove of renewable energy sources: wind energy, marine energy and some of the best solar resources in the world. Yet our current renewables capacity is very low.This new report finds that, while business as usual energy scenarios come at the cost of the climate and the economy, switching from coal to renewable electricity generation would reduce South Africa’s carbon dioxide emissions by 60% by 2050, and create a brand new industry and more jobs.
The Energy [R]evolution scenario also does best in emissions reductions, reducing South African emissions by 60% by 2050 (compared to the 2005 level) through energy efficiency, renewable energy and combined heat and power generation. By 2030, renewable energy supplies 36% of South Africa’s electricity.
By comparison, under the IEA Reference case South Africa’s emissions nearly double by 2050 relative to 2005, and under the Growth Without Constraints scenario emissions increase nearly fourfold.
The country needs to find the political will to start overhauling its entire energy supply process. It has to decide whether to continue down the pathway of seeking low cost, dirty solutions to the country’s energy crisis, or whether to invest in large scale development of renewable technologies combined with ambitious energy efficiency.
If the government seizes the opportunity, South Africa can avoid making the same costly mistakes that the climate-changing economies of the developed world have made. Instead, we can leapfrog ‘dirty development’ and lead the African energy revolution.
The crucial question, of course, is whether the government will seize the opportunity. It’s one of those frustrating situations where what seems like a clear win-win solution will be thwarted by vested interests. Let’s hope not.
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